I. Yesterday's News 1. The long and contentious race for the White House between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump hurtled toward its conclusion on Tuesday as millions of Americans cast ballots, with only hours left to vote. Clinton led Trump, 44 percent to 39 percent, in the last Reuters/Ipsos national tracking poll before Election Day. A Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation poll gave her a 90 percent chance of defeating Trump and becoming the first U.S. woman president.
2. China's central bank said on Tuesday that it will maintain ample liquidity in the country's financial system while taking steps to prevent asset bubbles in an increasingly leveraged economy. In its third-quarter monetary policy implementation report, the People's Bank of China said it will maintain a prudent monetary policy, fine-tuning in a preemptive and timely way and using multiple monetary policy tools flexibly to keep money markets stable.
3. U.S. inflation is relatively weak given the strength of the US economy, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said on Tuesday. A 1.7-percent core PCE means “approaching goal”, he said, adding that he would "feel better" about raising U.S. interest rates if he were more confident it would continue to rise. But he worried that inflation expectations will turn lower instead of going up.
4. Prime Minister Theresa May said the fundamentals of the British economy were very strong and affirmed her commitment to strengthening public finances after a report indicated that Brexit will prolong the country's reliance on borrowing.
5. The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised U.S. crude oil production for 2016 and 2017 by 40,000 and 180,000 to 1.33 million and 1.52 million barrels respectively. It also expects U.S. crude oil production for 2016 and 2017 to fall by less than previously expected. The statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy said 2016 oil production will fall by 580,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 8.84 million bpd. Last month, it had forecasted a 690,000 bpd year-over-year decline. Crude production in 2017 will fall by 110,000 bpd to 8.73 million bpd, compared with last month's forecast of a decline of 140,000 bpd.
II. Market Overview FX The dollar steadied after initial losses on Tuesday as investors bet on victory for Hillary Clinton in the U.S. presidential election that would avert a widely predicted slide for the greenback if rival Donald Trump were to win. The dollar index was flat on the day on Tuesday at 97.585. It was up around a quarter of a percent at 104.76 yen and steady against the euro at $1.1040.
Precious Metals Gold prices turned lower on Tuesday as the dollar and global equity markets firmed with investors growing more convinced that Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton could win the U.S. presidential election. Spot gold fell to $1,275.26 an ounce. U.S. gold futures settled down 0.4 percent at $1,274.50 per ounce. Silver rose to $18.34 an ounce. Platinum was up at $1,002.60. Palladium jumped to $662.97.
Commodities 1.Crude Oil Oil prices ended little changed on Tuesday as the market waited to find out who voters elected to be the next president of the United States. Brent futures lost 11 cents, or 0.2 percent, to settle at $46.04 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 9 cents, or 0.2 percent, to settle at $44.98 per barrel. Brent crude's premium to U.S. futures declined to its lowest level in almost five months on Tuesday as the global benchmark weakened relative to the U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract due in part to projections of record OPEC output.
2. Base Metals Copper prices hit one-year highs on Tuesday as expectations of stronger demand in top consumer China and optimism that Democrat Hillary Clinton will win the U.S. presidential election boosted sentiment and spurred buying. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange ended up 2.7 percent at $5,235.50 a tonne. Earlier it hit $5,248.50, its highest since Oct. 23, 2015, as funds jumped on the uptrend after a break of key resistance around $5,150. Aluminium closed up 0.2 percent at $1,731, zinc gained 0.4 percent to $2,478, lead rose 1.8 percent to $2,125 and tin fell 1.4 percent to $21,545. Nickel rose 1.2 percent to $11,260 a tonne from an earlier $11,370, its highest since July last year, as funds piled in on forecasts of deficits this year and next.
U.S. Treasuries U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board on Tuesday, recovering from early lows, as investors increasingly priced in an election victory for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. A lackluster U.S. three-year note auction also added to the market's bearish tone. Two-year note yields were at 0.869 percent, up from Monday's 0.822 percent. Following the U.S. three-year note auction, three-year notes touched two-week highs and were last down 4/32 in price to yield 1.029 percent, up from Monday's 0.981 percent.
Stock Market 1. U.S. Equities U.S. stocks rose for a second straight session on Tuesday as investors bet Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton would win the U.S. presidential election. Data company VoteCastr, which is providing real-time election information through news outlets, including Slate, showed Clinton with an early lead among voters in Florida, a must-win state for Trump. The Dow Jones industrial average ended up 73.14 points or 0.4 percent at 18,332.74 points and the S&P 500 gained 80.4 points or 0.38 percent to 2,139.56 points. The Nasdaq Composite added 27.32 points or 0.53 percent to 5,193.49 points.
2. Hong Kong Equities Hong Kong shares firmed on Tuesday as investors looked past China's worse-than-expected trade amid signs that Hillary Clinton will likely win the U.S. Presidential election. The Hang Seng index rose 0.5 percent, to 22,909.47, while the China Enterprises Index gained 0.5 percent, to 9,659.85 points.
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