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数字货币、跨境支付与国际货币体系变革 (刘东民 宋 爽)
现代金融体系与构建“双循环”新发展格局 (邱兆祥 曹 宇 刘永元)
金融机构尾部系统风险与行业风险关联效应研究
—— 基于尾部相依性视角 (陈守东 康 晶 林思涵)
资产质量、客户集中度与银行效率
—— 基于面板门槛模型的研究 (曹 强 谭 慧)
中国绿色金融发展的碳减排效果研究
—— 以绿色信贷与绿色风投为例 (江红莉 王为东 王 露 吴佳慧)
卖空交易与公司违约风险 (陈胜蓝 李 然 王 璟)
企业金融化、媒体监督与财务风险 (夏晓兰 高凡懿 赖 黎)
金融部门资产负债表的构建
—— 国际经验与实现路径 (丁 含 耿建新)
数字货币、跨境支付与国际货币体系变革
刘东民 宋 爽
从无锚定私人数字货币到数字稳定币和央行数字货币，数字货币的货币职能逐渐完善，而天秤币从重视“币”到重视“网”的发展更令人意识到分布式支付网络可能在下一代金融基础设施中发挥重要作用。以数字货币为载体的分布式支付网络具有重塑全球跨境支付体系的潜力，在经济效率和市场结构方面体现出一定优势。更重要的是，分布式跨境支付网络的出现还为打破个别国家对全球核心金融基础设施的控制带来契机，从而有可能推动国际货币体系的多元化变革。因此，中国未来应积极推动基于央行数字货币和数字稳定币共同构建跨境支付网络。
Digital Currency, Cross-Border Payment and International Monetary System Reform
LIU Dong-min SONG Shuang
From non-anchored private digital currencies to stablecoins and central bank digital currencies(CBDC), the monetary functions of digital currencies have gradually improved. Meanwhile, Libra’s focus from“currency” to “network” reveals that payment networks based on distributed ledger technology may play an important role in the next generation of financial infrastructure. The distributed payment networks with digital currencies have the potential to reshape the global cross-border payment system, and show some advantages in economic efficiency and market structure. More importantly, the emergence of distributed cross-border payment networks also provides an opportunity to break the individual country’s control over the global core financial infrastructure, and hence may push forward the reform of the international monetary system. Therefore, China should actively promote the construction of cross-border payment networks with CBDC and stablecoins in the future.
现代金融体系与构建“双循环”新发展格局
邱兆祥 曹 宇 刘永元
加快构建与“双循环”相适应的现代金融体系，已是中国当前金融改革和发展的重中之重。针对中国现行金融体系存在的结构失衡和配置效率不高等问题，构建高效服务“双循环”新发展格局的现代金融体系，应着力构建现代化的应急融资体系，为“双循环”提供常态化跨周期的金融支持；构建现代化的金融市场体系，提高金融结构与实体经济结构的匹配度；构建现代化的金融产品体系，提升金融供给经济“双循环”的配置效率；构建与国际接轨的现代化金融基础设施体系，确保金融体系高效安全运行。
Modern Financial System and Construction of “Dual Circulation” New Development Pattern
QIU Zhao-xiang CAO Yu LIU Yong-yuan
Speeding up the construction of a modern financial system suitable for the“dual circulation” has become the top priority of China’s current financial reform and development. With the focus on structural imbalance and low allocation efficiency in China’s current financial system, great effort should be dedicated to the construction of a modern emergency financing system to provide normalized cross-cycle financial support for the “dual circulation”. We should build a modern financial market system to improve the match between the financial structure and the real economic structure, a modern financial product system to improve the financial allocation efficiency, and a modern financial infrastructure system in line with international standards is essential to ensure the high efficient and safe financial operation.
金融机构尾部系统风险与行业风险关联效应研究
——基于尾部相依性视角
陈守东 康 晶 林思涵
本文采用基于极值理论的尾部系统风险测度指标（Tail-β），从静态、动态两个角度研究不同类型金融机构尾部系统风险异质性，并分析行业间尾部风险关联效应。研究表明：（1）银行体系中，城商行对于不利冲击反应较为敏感，应对风险能力明显不足。（2）证券部门在极端情形下表现出更强的脆弱性，存在明显的金融风险隐患。（3）部门间尾部风险关联程度随极端金融事件的发生显著上升；其中，银行和保险部门风险关联最强，证券部门与其他部门具有普遍的风险关联效应。（4）房地产部门在股市动荡时期也是金融风险的主要输出者。
A Research on Correlation of Tail Systematic Risk and Cross-Section Risk in Financial Institutions
——Based on Tail Dependence Perspective
CHEN Shou-dong KANG Jing LIN Si-han
This paper uses the tail systemic risk measurement index (Tail-β) based on extreme value theory to explore the tail systemic risk heterogeneity of different types of financial institutions, from both static and dynamic perspective, and also analyzes the correlation of cross-section tail risks. The results shows that: (1) urban commercial banks are more sensitive to adverse shocks and have insufficient ability to deal with risks; (2) under extreme circumstances, the securities sector is more vulnerable and has obvious financial risks; (3) the correlation degree of tail risk between sectors increases significantly with the occurrence of extreme financial eventsspecificaaly, the banking and insurance sectors have the strongest risk correlation, and there is a general risk correlation effect between the securities sector and other sectors; (4) the real estate sector is also the main exporter of financial risk in the period of stock market turbulence.
［Key words］ financial institution; systemic risk measurement; extreme value theory; tail systematic risk; correlation effect of risk
资产质量、客户集中度与银行效率
——基于面板门槛模型的研究
曹 强 谭 慧
本文把商业银行不良贷款率作为资产质量的代理变量并使其成为重要门槛指标，研究客户集中度对银行效率的门槛效应。结果表明：第一，在资产质量不同时，客户集中度对银行效率的影响表现出显著的门槛效应。在资产质量较高的银行中，客户集中度对银行效率呈显著正相关关系；在资产质量较低的银行中，客户集中度对银行效率呈显著负相关关系。第二，经济周期与银行效率正相关，经济周期下行阶段，银行效率下降，使得宏观审慎监管非常有必要。第三，商业银行设立分支机构与银行效率是先下降后上升的U形关系，表明银行开设分支机构能提升效率、降低成本，具有规模经济效应。
Asset Quality, Customer Concentration and Bank Efficiency
——An Analysis with Panel Threshold Model
CAO Qiang TAN Hui
This paper studies the threshold effect of customer concentration on bank efficiency, using the commercial banks’ non-performing loan ratio as the proxy for asset quality and the threshold indicator. It is found that: (1) customer concentration has a significant threshold effect on bank efficiency with different asset qualities, and the relationship between customer concentration and bank efficiency is significantly positive in banks with high asset quality and is significantly negative in banks low asset quality; (2) the economic cycle is positively correlated with bank efficiency, thus bank efficiency is decreased in the downward phase and the macro prudential regulation is necessary; (3) the relationship between the number of commercial banks’ branches and bank efficiency is U-shaped, which indicates that opening of branches has a scale economies effect in improving efficiency and reducing costs.
customer concentration; bank efficiency; asset quality; financial ecological environment index; macro prudential regulation
中国绿色金融发展的碳减排效果研究
——以绿色信贷与绿色风投为例
江红莉 王为东 王 露 吴佳慧
本文以绿色信贷、绿色风投为绿色金融的代表，基于中国23个省（市）2006-2016年的数据，构建动态面板数据模型，从整体和分组两个层面实证研究绿色金融的碳减排效果。结果表明：单独考虑绿色信贷、绿色风投，两者均能抑制碳排放；将两者纳入同一个模型，除低碳排放组外，省级及其余组别的绿色风投系数均不再显著；费舍尔组合检验表明，高、低碳排放组的绿色信贷、绿色风投的碳减排效果无显著性差异，但高、低绿色信贷组的绿色信贷、绿色风投的碳减排效果存在显著性差异；绿色信贷与绿色风投之间不存在显著的“挤入效应”或“挤出效应”。
The Effects of the Carbon Emission Reduction of China’s Green Finance
——An Analysis Based on Green Credit and Green Venture Investment
JIANG Hong-li WANG Wei-dong WANG Lu WU Jia-hui
With green credit and green venture investment as the proxies for green finance, this paper uses dynamic panel data model and the data of 23 Chinese provinces (cities) during 2006-2016 to analyze the carbon emission reduction effects of green finance. The results show that: either green credit or green venture investment alone could reduce the carbon emission; once both are incorporated into the model, coefficients of green venture investment are insignificant except the low carbon emission group. Fisher’s test shows that there is no significant difference between the reduction effects of low and high carbon emission groups, but there is between the effects of low and high green credit groups; the crowding-in and crowding-out effects are insignificant between green credit and green venture investment.
卖空交易与公司违约风险
陈胜蓝 李 然 王 璟
本文使用中国2010-2018年融券标的公司的卖空交易量来考察实际发生的卖空交易如何影响公司违约风险。本文借助转融通业务的开启构建准自然实验情境，缓解可能存在的内生性问题。研究结果表明卖空交易能够显著降低公司违约风险。卖空交易降低违约风险的主要机制之一是减少公司的新增融资。横截面差异检验发现卖空交易降低公司违约风险主要存在于控股股东私利侵占行为比较严重、融资约束程度较高和政府干预程度较高的公司之中。
The Short Selling and the Corporate Default Risk
CHEN Sheng-lan LI Ran WANG Jing
This paper examines the impact of actual short selling on corporate default risk using the short selling volume of target companies in China during 2010-2018. The results show that the short selling could significantly reduce the corporate default risk. To mitigate the possible endogenous problems, a quasi-natural experiment is built with the opening of refinancing business in 2012. A main mechanism of short selling’s risk reduction is to reduce new corporate financing. The cross-sectional difference test shows that the impact mainly exists in companies with the problems of controlling shareholders’ expropriation, financing constraints and government intervention.
企业金融化、媒体监督与财务风险
夏晓兰 高凡懿 赖 黎
基于中国宏观经济“脱实向虚”以及企业金融化趋势的背景，本文选择2007-2018年A股上市公司数据进行实证检验，探索企业金融化与财务风险之间的关系。研究发现：（1）企业金融化程度越高，面临的财务风险越高；（2）媒体监督能缓解企业金融化对财务风险的放大效应；（3）进一步研究显示企业金融化对财务风险的放大效应在行业集中度高的情况下更显著。
Corporate Financialization, Media Scrutiny and Financial Risk
XIA Xiao-lan GAO Fan-yi LAI Li
Based on the background of China’s macro-economy being distracted from their intended purpose and the trend of financialization in the corporate sector, this paper selects the data of A-share listed companies during 2007-2018 for empirical test and explores the relationship between corporate financialization and financial risk. The results are shown as follows: (1) the higher the degree of financialization, the higher the financial risk; (2) the press as a watchdog can alleviate the amplification effect of corporate financialization on financial risk; (3) further research shows that the amplification effect of corporate financialization on financial risk is more significant when the industry concentration is high.
金融部门资产负债表的构建
——国际经验与实现路径
丁 含 耿建新
本文分别对金融部门资产负债表的国际和国内编制现状进行分析。本文研究表明当前中国金融部门资产负债表的编制与国际标准和发达国家相比还有一定差距。同时，当前阶段中国与金融部门资产负债表编制相关的统计数据也存在一定缺陷。本文认为建立微观层面企业资产负债表和宏观金融部门资产负债表之间的联系和转换，是构建中国金融部门资产负债表的实现路径。为此，本文以银行业为例分析微观企业资产负债表向宏观部门资产负债表转换的实现路径，并验证其可行性与有效性。
The Construction of Balance Sheet of Financial Sector
——International Practices and Paths
DING Han GENG Jian-xin
The authors of this paper analyze the current status of financial sector’s balance sheet in China and abroad. Compared with international standards and the practices of developed countries, it is found that China’s compilation of balance sheets still has room for improvement, and has statistic shortcomings. As for the construction path of financial sector’s balance sheet in China, this paper indicates that the connection and transition of balance sheets should be made between the macro-level financial sector and micro-level corporations. Then the banking sector is taken as an example to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the construction path.
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